Publications
Strategic Advisory for Leaders and Organizations
Transformation as Revolution (2006)
Shows how deep organizational change actually happens and how leaders can guide transformation from within.
Speaking Truth to Power (2011)
Examines how reflective leadership shapes decision quality and organizational culture.
Achieving Clarity in a Constantly Changing Environment (2007)
Explores how leaders find clarity when information is fluid, fast-moving, and incomplete.
Rethinking Time (2021)
Offers a framework for how leaders interpret signals over different time horizons.
Facing Dilemmas (2025)
Reveals how people navigate emotional and structural dilemmas in high-pressure settings—a core leadership challenge.
Collaboration with Research and Analytic Teams
Full Spectrum Analysis (2006)
Introduces a broadened analytic framework for integrating multiple perspectives into research and assessment.
Information Overload and Equivocality (2015)
Explains how analysts cope with unclear or excessive information and how teams can support better judgment.
The Analytic Review Process (2010)
Shows how structured review strengthens reasoning and helps teams avoid weak assumptions.
Research Design and Establishing Causality (2022)
Clarifies how to design research that produces reliable, rigorous conclusions.
In Pursuit of Insight (2022)
Reveals how analysts solve novel, real-world problems when templates fall short.
Insight and Problem-Solving Facilitation
Bringing the Wall of the Unknown Down (2010)
Shows how reframing a problem opens entirely new paths to insight.
Decision Conflict in Army Leaders (2019)
Explores how people handle competing demands and make decisions under pressure.
Contradiction and Critical Thinking (2018)
Demonstrates how tension and contradiction stimulate deeper reasoning.
How Analysts Attain Insight (2022)
Explains the conditions that support genuine insight in complex work.
Dialogue During Intelligence Assessments (2022)
Shows how structured dialogue produces richer, more reliable conclusions.
Cross-Boundary Communication and Ways of Knowing
Investing in the Social Capital of Knowledge (2005)
Highlights how relationships support the sharing and integration of expertise.
Crossing Boundaries to Build Change (2007)
Shows why cross-boundary communication is essential for solving complex problems.
Creating Networks at DIA (2006)
Illustrates how networks help people collaborate across organizational divides.
Absorptive Capacity (2017)
Explains the competencies organizations need to recognize, interpret, and use new knowledge.
Harnessing the Collision of Four Ways of Knowing (2025)
Offers a framework for integrating scientific, analytic, experiential, and political forms of understanding.
Supporting Technical Experts Transitioning into Leadership
Transition from Engineer to Manager (2024)
Reveals what technical professionals must learn to succeed as leaders.
Decision-Making in Elite Athletes (2023)
Demonstrates how high performers adjust when the decision environment becomes dynamic and relational.
UK vs US Physician Decision-Making (2019)
Shows how experts confront uncertainty when moving beyond purely technical reasoning.
Expatriates Working in Corruption (2017)
Highlights the adaptive, relational skills needed when technical expertise is insufficient.
Lessons Learned and Organizational Learning
Lessons Learned from Really Changing Intelligence (2008, Part I)
Clarifies why organizations struggle to learn and how true learning takes hold.
Lessons Learned from Really Changing Intelligence (2009, Part II)
Clarifies why organizations struggle to learn and how true learning takes hold.
Innovation: Creating a Culture of Improvement (2008)
Describes how cultures evolve when learning becomes habitual.
Learning and Adapting While Doing (2009)
Shows how real-time adjustment strengthens performance.
Narrowing the Dissemination Gap (2017)
Explores how knowledge moves—or fails to move—across communities.
Street-Level Competencies for Sustainable Change (2017)
Identifies the behaviors that support lasting organizational learning.
Climate-Security Intelligence Support
Climate Security Intelligence: From Knowledge Transfer to Co-Creation (2025)
Explains how climate science, social science, and intelligence analysis come together to support decision-makers facing new kinds of risk.
Climate-Informed Warning: A Shift from Intent-Based Threats to Vulnerability-Based Risks (2026)
Shows leaders and analysts how to rethink early warning by shifting from intent-based threat models to vulnerability-based analysis, revealing why many geopolitical surprises actually emerge from environmental stress rather than adversary strategy.
Climate Security as an Epistemological Battleground (2026)
Explains why climate security is difficult for organizations to understand and act on, tracing how scientists, policymakers, and intelligence professionals interpret the same problem through different knowledge lenses, and how those differences can either block or accelerate meaningful action.
Environmental Change: Climate Security and Artificial Intelligence (2026)
Shows how environmental stress interacts with political, economic, and societal systems, and why intelligence organizations must integrate AI, scientific knowledge, interdisciplinary thinking, and human judgment to navigate climate-related risk.
Human–AI Judgment Integration
Systematic Review of AI/ML in the Intelligence Community (2022)
Reveals how practitioners perceive the opportunities and limits of AI in real organizations.
Public Trust In and Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (2026)
Understand why trust in AI is never just about the technology itself, mapping how cultural norms, institutional behavior, public expectations, and governance structures shape whether AI strengthens or undermines decision-making legitimacy.
AI-Ready Leadership (2026)
Provides a framework for orchestrating human judgment with artificial intelligence—an essential capability for modern decision-makers.
Framing the Human-AI Fit: Matching Collaboration Strategies to Hybrid Problems (2025)
A practical way to match human and machine intelligence to the problem at hand, showing that successful AI integration depends less on technical capability and more on framing, judgment, and understanding how problems evolve.
